Tracks/Track 10 — AI Due Diligence/N10-6
Track 10 — AI Due Diligence

N10-6: AI Revenue Quality Analysis

Distinguishing real AI revenue from hype revenue in due diligence.

3 Lessons~45 min

🎯 What You'll Learn

  • Analyze revenue attribution
  • Identify hype vs substance
  • Calculate AI-specific NRR
  • Evaluate pricing durability
Free Preview — Lesson 1
1

Lesson 1: AI Revenue Attribution

Companies love to label everything "AI revenue." The test: if you removed the AI component, would the customer still pay? If yes, it's software revenue with AI marketing. If no, it's true AI revenue. Only AI-attributed revenue — where the AI is the primary value driver — should be valued at AI multiples.

Removal Test

If the AI feature were removed, what % of the price would customers still pay?

AI premium = total price - price without AI
Feature Usage

What percentage of active users actually use the AI features?

AI usage <30% suggests the AI is marketing, not value
Retention Attribution

Is AI usage correlated with higher retention?

If AI users churn at the same rate as non-AI users, AI isn't driving retention
📝 Exercise

Apply the removal test to your AI product. What percentage of revenue is truly AI-attributed?

2

Lesson 2: Hype Revenue Identification

Three patterns of hype revenue: (1) POC Revenue — customers paying $5-10K for a proof of concept they won't renew, (2) Innovation Budget — funded by the customer's "innovation lab" instead of operational budget, (3) Executive Sponsor Risk — revenue dependent on a single champion who may leave or lose interest.

POC Revenue

One-time proof-of-concept payments that don't convert to production contracts.

POC-to-production conversion rate <30% = hype signal
Innovation Budget Risk

Innovation lab budgets are cut first in downturns.

Ask: is this funded from innovation or operations budget?
Single Champion Risk

Revenue dependent on one executive sponsor at the customer.

If that person leaves, the contract follows them out the door
📝 Exercise

Categorize your AI revenue by source: production, POC, innovation budget. What percentage is durable production revenue?

3

Lesson 3: AI NRR Analysis

Net Revenue Retention for AI products must be analyzed separately from the overall NRR. Calculate: AI NRR = (AI revenue from existing customers at end of period / AI revenue from same customers at start of period). This reveals whether AI revenue is expanding, stable, or contracting within accounts.

AI Expansion Rate

Are customers using more AI over time (expanding consumption)?

>120% AI NRR = strong product-market fit
AI Contraction Signal

Customers reducing AI usage or downgrading AI-specific plans.

<100% AI NRR = value perception problem
Cohort Analysis

Analyze AI NRR by customer cohort (signup quarter) to identify trends.

Newer cohorts should show equal or better AI NRR
📝 Exercise

Calculate your AI-specific NRR for the last 4 quarters. Is the trend improving, stable, or declining?

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Module Syllabus

Lesson 1: Lesson 1: AI Revenue Attribution

Companies love to label everything "AI revenue." The test: if you removed the AI component, would the customer still pay? If yes, it's software revenue with AI marketing. If no, it's true AI revenue. Only AI-attributed revenue — where the AI is the primary value driver — should be valued at AI multiples.

15 MIN

Lesson 2: Lesson 2: Hype Revenue Identification

Three patterns of hype revenue: (1) POC Revenue — customers paying $5-10K for a proof of concept they won't renew, (2) Innovation Budget — funded by the customer's "innovation lab" instead of operational budget, (3) Executive Sponsor Risk — revenue dependent on a single champion who may leave or lose interest.

20 MIN

Lesson 3: Lesson 3: AI NRR Analysis

Net Revenue Retention for AI products must be analyzed separately from the overall NRR. Calculate: AI NRR = (AI revenue from existing customers at end of period / AI revenue from same customers at start of period). This reveals whether AI revenue is expanding, stable, or contracting within accounts.

25 MIN
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