Model Your
Valuation Gap.
Execution risk destroys enterprise value. Quantify what your roadmap uncertainty is costing you.
Probability of feature creep derailing timeline
Unknown unknowns in architecture/implementation
Key person dependencies, hiring challenges
Compliance, legal, market access challenges
The Myth of the "10x Multiple"
Founders love to quote top-decile public market multiples. "Datadog trades at 15x, so I trade at 15x." This is a delusion. Valuation is not just a function of Growth Rate; it is a function of Predictability.
The EV-SE Engine™ (Enterprise Value Scenario Engine) introduces the concept of the Certainty Premium. Investors pay for certainty. If your roadmap has a high probability of failure (due to technical risk, scope creep, or talent gaps), your effective valuation is discounted—often by 30-50%—before you even enter the boardroom.
The "Haircut" Protocol
- → Scope Creep: -15% Valuation Impact
- → Key Person Risk: -20% Valuation Impact
- → Tech Debt: -10% Valuation Impact
This tool forces you to confront these discounts upfront.
Defending the Downside
The most valuable thing a Product Leader can do is not "ideation"—it is Risk Adjustment. By using this calculator to model "Worst Case," "Base Case," and "Blue Sky," you transform your roadmap from a lottery ticket into a bankable bond. This is how you defend your budget in a downturn.