Why Migrations Overrun
Initial estimate assumes: clean cutover, complete documentation, stable requirements. Reality: parallel running (2x infrastructure cost), undocumented edge cases (30-50% scope creep), business changes during migration, and team bandwidth split between old and new.
Planning rule: take your initial estimate—multiply time by 2.5x and cost by 3x. If the migration still has positive ROI at those numbers, proceed. If not, consider incremental improvement of the current system.